Having read all of this thread so far, I have not seen much on the evaluation of the dangers and risks of shutting down of airspace.
The decision to close down aviation will certainly reduce the risk of an accident, and will save some lives just by reducing the hours flown, and the amount of duty free cigarettes and alcohol sold -but it will also probably cause many deaths and injuries and other effects - which need to be understood so that the decision can be taken balancing the risks.
Some that can think of are:
(1) Immediate loss of life / injury caused by lack of air ambulance flights, stress related illneses, people being forced to stay in countries with less sanitation etc. loss of supply of drugs
(2) Displacement deaths: More deaths on roads, ferries, etc. due to increased traffic
(3) Economically related deaths. Millions in africa rely on air transported products (flowers,fruits, veg) to earn wages - their lower standard of living will cause deaths. Pilots, cabin crew, airport staff and their families will earn less money - generally less money means higher death rates
(4) Indirect loss of life due to loss of progress of life saving drugs (less business meetings etc.)
(5) Dangers due to loss of flying experience if pilots have periods of many weeks without flying
(6) Increased chance of death caused by soldiers in Afghanistan etc having to extend their tours of duty, and reduced interaction between govenrnemnts possibly increasing tensions / frictions etc.
Whatever these risks are, they demonstrate that somebody who knows only about the risks of volcanic ash and aviation can not be the decision maker about whether or not to shut down aviation. It needs to be somebody who can balance the risks of flying with the risks of not-flying.
For example, in the UK, around 3,000 people die in road accidents caused by motor cars each year, but presumably lives would be lost by banning all motorised road transport, not least of which would be horse related.
On that basis, I wonder who the decision maker really is, and where they are looking for the data to balance with?
Last edited by rayand; 18th Apr 2010 at 17:37.