I'd say there about 800 frzn ATPL's out there who are committed to getting a flying job and actively looking. There are a lot out there who have the exams and some ratings but who have effectively given up. Similarly there are a significant number of no-hopers who have ticked all the boxes but won't get a job unless the market returns to the heydays of pilot shortage which is a long way off and they never last for long.
I would guess recovery will start for non-type rated pilots - barring war in the Gulf in 6 months time - in the New Year of 2003.
Such recovery is likely to be in the order of 300 pilots a year rising the next year to the 400 - 500 mark as many airlines have over contracted and the retirement bulge is real enough.
All in all it will take 4 years, maybe 5 until we reach the levels we had pre-Sept 11th.
Probably we'll then have a good 5 years or so of expansion and then the 10 year cycle will hit again :-( This industry loves its 10 year cycle.
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