lomapaseo
One of the more thoughtful posts I've seen in this thread. I especially like the following logic:
"So the question is how much is too much regarding volcanic ash?.The experts need to know the particulate size. Smaller, (the stuff that stays at high altitudes) is worse since it's dependent on residence time withi the combustor flame. The experts also need to know the relative makeup of melting points of the particulate mater. If this can be identified and modeled within a fortnight then we might be able to make some progress to temper our reaction to the threat."
Volcanic ejecta varies widely based on many geologic factors. Add to this the atmospheric conditions (not my field) and things get very unpredictable. Without this information one can't begin to speculate, and I would hope that it's being gathered as we speak. If not - and were I an official at a major airline - I would be buying and deploying my own test equipment tomorrow, hiring a vulcanologist or two, and engineers, costs be damned.
Based on the geologic record, this is not likely to be a short term event, although noone can say with certainty how long it may last. Just thinking of odds based on history, but volcanoes are unpredictable critters. I'd prepare for the long-haul and hope for something better, as geologic time scales run on a very different calendar. I'd also hope and pray it's big brother doesn't awaken - God help us if it does.
Regards,
LoboTx, geologist at large