For me the possible scenario was:
1. The pilot gets the information on bad weather and informs President
about possible diversion well ahead, probably near Minsk.
2. The President and the aids, maybe also the Head of Air Force say,
"go ahead to Smoleńsk, we will see, there is sometimes a gap in the fog".
3. They continue to Smoleńsk, the pilot reports again fog and low visibility,
suggests diversion. Again, he is told to "look for a gap".
4. He circles 3 times trying to wait for a weather change or "find a gap". He reports
to the President and/or HoAF, "no gap" we have to divert. The answer is:
"Let's at least have a try, then we divert,
we will, at least, be sure we did everything we could..."
5. The doomed approach starts...
As I mentioned before, there might be nothing to hear on the CVR,
because this was a common practice (as mentioned by former President
Lech Walesa in an interview), that it was the Capitan who was
leaving the cockpit to inform the President and his aids personally about
the situation and to discuss the solutions. Sometimes they were just deciding
which alternate to use in case of diversion, such discussions were harmless
to the safety of operations.
If the CVR will confirm that anybody of the crew left the cockpit,
we can assume this was the reason. Nevertheless, the conversations
among crew members would indicate, that my scenario, as sketched above
is probable.
Unfortunately, such conversations might have taken place long enough
before the final events, so they can be easily left out from the final
publication of the CVR transcripts, as promised today by the Chief Prosecutor,
from the Polish Military Accident Investigation Commission.