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Old 1st Apr 2010, 08:45
  #639 (permalink)  
mm43
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
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Coriolis

Having had a closer look at the 0215z Satellite IR image (nominal time of scan 0208z), and using some image editing software, I have come to the conclusion that the mesoscale event that AF447 appears to have entered was of the reverse coriolis type. Due to the closeness to the equator, the coriolis effect was possibly modified by the surface winds as the rotation in the updraft commenced. That statement is not necessarily true as observations have often shown a change of rotation direction as altitude increases - particularly in low latitudes.

The image in question shows a marked tendril circling in a clockwise direction from the southern edge. That being the case, the head wind that Ellis Traub based his thesis on, was in the AF447 case, a tail wind. It is worth mentioning that the 0215z Satellite IR image probably recorded events 10,000ft or more above FL350, and the apparent tendril could have been feeding the core of the mesoscale system, while the updraft flowed outwards as anvil cloud at our altitude of interest.

Having made the above points, I wouldn't be putting bets on exactly was happening, except to to say that at about 50,000ft the IR image indicates a clockwise rotation.

mm43
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