High Speed Rail
Hi everyone, I'm a transport planner and thought some people might be interested in a possible scenario for Australia to get high speed trains.
A high speed train in Australia would be financially viable - but only if you can capture the increased land value along the route. That's the challenge for government - a high speed rail line from Melbourne - Canberra - Sydney would massively increase the value of land along the route, so the trick is how to view that impact and deal with it. If you can get from Albury to Melbourne in 45 mins, that's going to have a big impact on development in regional areas. If you can get from Canberra to Sydney in an hour, then living in Canberra becomes a whole lot more attractive.
The most likely scenario for Melbourne - Canberra - Sydney is linked to the debate around Sydney's second airport. A high speed line would defer the need for a second airport for decades.
The plans for the VFT (Very Fast Train) in the late 1990s involved the train stopping at both Sydney and Melbourne Airports to allow for plane connections.
A VFT would basically eliminate flights from Melbourne - Sydney, Canberra - Sydney, Albury - Sydney, Melbourne - Canberra, etc...(as well as a lot of NSW regional flights) and would probably lead to a lot of international airlines deciding to consolidate in one or other of the markets, offering rail connections as part of the fare.
It is likely that a VFT from Melbourne - Canberra - Sydney would happen as a deliberate decision to defer indefinitely the second airport for Sydney. If you look at the costs for a second airport, and the costs of a VFT, and the benefits from a VFT in terms of land values, encouraging regional development, etc.. then it should become a bit of a no brainer. It is also the politically desirable option - no government wants to go through the development of a second airport.
Eurostar has more than 90% of the London-Paris market. Each train carries 750 passengers. A VFT would deliver a high capacity link (eg. even one train every half hour would massively increase the number of seats available on the corridor).
Travel times using existing technology would be 3 hours from Melbourne to Sydney (that's from Southern Cross to Central).