Without wishing to divert attention from the main topic here, there is no way the UK would lose its AAA gold standard rating, so i will have to disagree with you there WWW and would be interested to learn on what basis you predict this?
Its no secret that 9 days ago Moodys credit rating agency said the UK had moved "substantially" closer to losing AAA status.
According to them the U.K. is likely to spend 7 percent of revenue servicing debt this year and 9 percent in 2013, rising to almost 12 percent under the adverse scenario.
Financing costs above 10 percent put countries outside of the AAA category into a so-called debt reversibility band, the size of which depends on the ability and willingness of nations to reduce their debt burden by raising taxes or reducing spending.
Its all going to hinge on the growth rate for next year. I think the Government is overestimating the figures. Darling revised them down a little at lunchtime. I think he's still too optimistic. House Prices are a very good proxy for the wider economy. They started falling agin in Jan and Feb and Easter is usually the absolute peak for house sales - but the estate agents I know are still struggling and every time I go past the offices are empty of buyers.
We shall see. Hopefully I'm wrong and I can go and dig up my gold stash
WWW