Spoilher
I love the way you pick and choose your quotes to suit your argument.
What I
actually said was "
The only real question in this accident investigation is, why did they lose control? It was either mechanical (ie a prop in reverse or something equally unlikely), or it was pilot error".
Note that there are two possible causes in that sentence...
People with "my sort of experience" are actually expected to have an analytical mindset, which is informed by the incident/accident stats of the airline we work for, and the same stats for the type itself. These stats (in a decent airline) are comprehensive and very revealing. What they show is that by far the majority of accidents and incidents have a significant element of engineer or pilot error to them.
Now if you were to compare all the accidents in turboprops and light twins that were characterised by a loss of control during a V1 cut (and there have been a lot), how many of them would be down to a mechanical failure? That's right - not very many.
That is why it is a relatively safe (but unpalatable) bet to draw a conclusion about what caused this accident - because it has been seen many times before.
Why do you think we have simulators?
Anyway... you wait for the report. Feel free to send me a PM and remind me how wrong I was when it eventually comes out...