Embraer seems to leap at these MEGA deals....(SWIFT AVIATION, Indigo) must be their 'airline' background. Jetblue was ambitious at the best of times, and fuelled as much by hype as by a firm grasp of this market sector.....but hey...that's just an opinion, but an opinion expressed at the time, and in each case.....so I guess with 3 outta 3 I'm either clairvoyant or have some grasp of the business.
Embraer's focus on the VLJ hype at the expense of selling big jets, when the going was good, has surely damaged their financial position in the long term. The Lineage is hugely under performing in the market..and the 450/500 are way late......
As for JetBlue.....yet again, many innocent victims. If only the 'entrepreneurs' could understand that first you have to actually build a business and prove the model on a small scale before claiming that all issues are solved on a massive scale and you are the next best thing to sliced bread....it's just unleashed ego...rather than clever business.
Case in point, look at Avinode. A bright idea, that I've followed from almost day one. Gradually, by working hard they've built a real worldwide business now...and not hyped anything, just delivered a clever innovative product.
Rule of thumb for the future...
Chances of success of a new business = (Actual aircraft in operation - announced projected number of aircraft)/(number of press releases issued claiming things in the future vs. those announcing actual real achievements + number of photo's of CEO or Chairman in Press shaking hands on a deal where nothing is actually achieved in terms of real revenue into the entity).
If that maths is a touch trying there is an even quicker guestimate method....
Chance of success is inversely proportional to number of images of new business president (if a man) shown NOT wearing a tie...... (female run start ups seem not to have the same BIG ego issues, and succeed or fail without the brouhaha)
I give you Jet Republic as a control sample for either above equation......