The F-35 Mess
Subject: F-35 Hearing.
I watched the SASC F-35 hearing today and conclude the following:
Ashton Carter and Christine Fox do not know what is the unit cost of the F-35, but it is somewhere between $80 and $95 million each in 2002 dollars.
Ms. Fox does not know what the operating cost will be; the NAVAIR and SPO estimates are under study.
Carter and Fox knew in October 2009 there would be a Nunn-McCurdy breach; they will formally notify Congress of that in April.
Ashton Carter is only 50% confident his current estimate of a $2.8 billion cost increase and a 13 month SDD delay is accurate. He was not asked for a 75% confidence estimate; if one exists, it is clearly higher, longer. 95% confidence? Both unknown.
No one can or is willing to say who is responsible for the mess. Senator McCaskill asked for a name; got none; didn't really persist.
Software is a year behind schedule but that's not a big problem because the aircraft are more behind schedule than that.
The planned 12 aircraft to complete the 2010 flight test plan are not available. The last two will not be available until February 2011. The aircraft available now are barely flying; it is not clear when new deliveries will occur to take a stab at the 2010 flight test plan. Clearly, it will not be executed, but no one knows how big will be the shortfall.
GAO witness upgraded the statement of his prepared statement of "significant risk" in going ahead now with production to "incredible risk." Nonetheless, GAO seems unwilling to give specifics for how much the planned production should be reduced until someone gets a clue on the above issues.
I've been a student of defense issues since 1971 when I started working in Congress. I have never seen a mess as big as this surrounded by people in responsibility who cannot answer even rudimentary questions -- and no one, repeat no one, has a plan that shows even a dim promise to get us out of the mess.
Rather than pay $11 billion for 43 more unusable F-35 aircraft in the 2011 budget, the amount made available for further F-35 procurement should be $0.00. Why should any procurement money be made available until all uncertainty is removed by the completion of OT&E in April 2016?
_____________________________
Winslow T. Wheeler
Director
Straus Military Reform Project
Center for Defense Information
301 791-2397