Hi!
From what I can discern, EK is in a precarious pilot manning situation, due to the fact that:
1-New airplanes are coming
2-Pilots are leaving
3-EK is having difficulty hiring enough pilots to replace the leavers AND fill the new cockpits
EK has been lowing the minimum standards they put in place when hiring started in Fall, 2009.
To fix the pilot manning situation, I believe that EK will have to continually lower their minimum standards, AND they will have to IMPROVE the T&Cs of the existing pilot work force.
Conditions in the US, which is what of the main drivers of how successful EK wll be in fixing their pilot manning, due to the fact that the US has the most number of excess pilots that can fly as expats, are improving for pilots.
Increased Hiring Now:
In the US, many regionals will be hiring this year, as will many of the larger-aircraft operators. This trend will accelerate past 2012.
New Regulations Will Require More Hiring:
Additionally, the US Congress is forcing the FAA to improve Flight/Duty/Rest regulations, to make them similar to the British CAA system. This will require hiring of more pilots (or recalling of furloughees) to fill the current flight schedule, by virtually ALL US airlines. Congress is also looking at a bill, with a good chance of becoming law, that will force ALL Part 121 (normal commercial airlines, like Delta and UPS) airlines to hire pilots WITH A FULL ATP. That is correct. A brand new FO, if/when the law passes, will need a FULL ATP to even apply at ANY US airline.
New Pilot Candidate Declines:
Since about 2000, here in the US, EVERY year the number of new Student Pilots, Commercial Pilots, and ATPs has gone DOWN. EVERY YEAR, for the past 10 years, and the trend has been accelerating. When Dec, 2012 hits, when pilots in the US will once again have to retire because of their age (65), there will be a firestorm of hiring required to fill new seats, fill retired guy's slots, and a MASSIVE SHORTAGE of new-hire candidates.
If EK does not improve T&Cs as fast as they possibly can, they will be caught in a negative feedback cycle, and they will be in very big trouble.
I encourage EK management to improve the T&Cs as fast as practical.
Good luck and I hope it works out well for EK over the next 5 years!
cliff
NBO