PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Emirates short-to-medium term predictions
Old 9th Mar 2010, 04:53
  #15 (permalink)  
ekwhistleblower
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Hotels
Posts: 189
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
I think the Middle East is about to become one of the largest importers ever seen of cheese to go with all the w(h)ine.

Why not start up a little project and actually go and compare what EK gives you and what it doesn't, what Dubai gives you and what it doesn't and then make a decision about whether you really are worse or better off in the sand pit. Only you can decide, for the vast majority of the pilots despite the rhetoric from a few they have a reasonably nice lifestyle compared to many in the industry.

Lots of posts with lots of guff about improving markets elsewhere and guys spring loaded to leave, I look forward to the mass exodus (if it comes) because that is the time at which the Middle Eastern carriers will significantly improve the package to attract more people. Many of those posts appear to come from guys that were disgruntled at their previous outfit or even lost their jobs and then came to EK. I don't know where most of these posters are from but lets face it we could actually all be the same person self flagellating and using multiple nicknames to try and put our own point out as gospel. Some could even be senior execs from a competitor such is the weakness of an unregulated open forum, that accusation has been leveled at one LC CEO.

I do know that some of the rantings would actually depress me (if they are genuine posters) because they come from guys expressing the view that they wish to be paid as professionals but just by tapping a key damage the image of all professional pilots around the world. Pilots have and will always be their own worst enemies. Do you ever see doctors/lawyers telling everyone how easy their job is and slagging off their employers? No because they actually have a professional attitude to their line of work.

So my spin on the Middle East:

Qatar - dodgy because the CEO was making guys eat sh1t even before the economic crash and Doha is not my cup of tea anyway.

Emirates - upset the employees due to communication of changes and dashed expectations. Some of those expectations were clearly pie in the sky even before the guys joined.

Etihad - newbies on the street all is golden until they become a mature airline and then they will face the same difficulties as the other two. Right now they have not been running long enough to crush too many expectations.

So then let’s look around the world at how great everyone else is doing:

Easy guys bleating about how the orange monster has deteriorated.

Ryan guys bleating about having to bring everything to work (probably even their own toilet paper).

BA screwed by the CC to the extent that pilots and ground staff are prepared to work to fill the void to try and protect their T&Cs when the doomed strike occurs. Willy Walsh sharpening the 'knives or waiting for the petard hoisting to begin.

Virgin dump crew quicker than I can take a dump whenever there is a whiff of the red in their bottom line. Branson then does a few interviews to show what a top businessman he really is and how much he cares about his staff.

Air France/KLM about to have the mother of all disasters with a massive billion euro loss (allegedly) I bet the guys at their spin offs (City etc) will be horrified as they are cut loose when a long haul FO makes 3 times as much as they do. They have the biggest pension black hole ever seen and it is only a question of time before it strangles them. They still try to apply legacy conditions because of union strength in France sadly the coffers are running dry and they'll do a Sabena unless they change pronto.

The US carriers; furloughs still yet to be recalled and profits yet to be made. How any industry can work by offering deals to those at the top of the tree which involve ditching the new joiners if there is a cough in Tibet amazes me!

So I believe from a business point of view the medium/long term prospects in the Middle East are better than average until the total saturation of the market. The fact is that the cost base makes us globally competitive and Europe and the US have not really addressed it yet. Legacies such as AF/KLM did well when anyone could turn a profit but in the more challenging economic times they will have to adapt or die. The LCs in Europe dominate the short haul market, only slot regulation is protecting long haul.

As to T&Cs, they will only change dramatically when there is a real shortage of skilled labour as we all know it just comes down to supply and demand. I can't see that in the short term (however much some would wish for it). Why? I would be amazed if there are not at least 5 major staff retrenchments within Europe and the US in the next 12 months.

So endeth the gospel according to EKWB, all I was trying to do was put a little perspective into the debate. Many will tell me it is a crock and that is their right, but it is how I see it. I just wish a few would be more professional in their outpourings so that the perception of the pilot group by the top execs in the industry might be changed and then we might actually be listened to. Have a great day.
ekwhistleblower is offline