Think the same is going to happen in aviation? You bet your sweet @rse it is!
Only if the airlines fly less......other industries have choices that just aren't available in aviation. Large industrial polluters can move factories out of Europe (but still have their credits) or use alternative energy sources. Airlines can't move or use another fuel. They are also targeting tiny emitters in aviation but only huge emitters in industry - it's the politics of envy in action.