Currently at .9080
So much for the collapse. Now what was that comment about making predictions, and looking like an arse? Anyone else still on the 4PW's bandwagon?*
My sources tell me that despite the increasing carry trade, everyone trying to keep ahead of the game may begin to unwind soon. The Fed is starting to look at it's quantitative easing, which to me is the one big impediment to the USD improving against the aussie. Might be time to take a step back and watch for a bit. Forget about the alleged 'tightening'- a bit of slight of hand to try and stoke confidence.
Once again, I am getting mixed messages from oz- some saying things are grim, job losses etc, others (and the official unemployment numbers etc) saying the opposite. What do others 'feel'?
Tsk I don't think the cards will fall this way. Best be well away from the US dollar.
I think in the next couple of months or so the focus will move up the food chain. First it was greece, spain, ireland with their debt. Now it seems to be questions about the Uk. Soon it will be the big daddy, the USA.
If it come to pass that the focus increases on the US gov debt, which is HUGE, I think the US treasury's will be worthless. So if this happens, the cash will run out for the US government.
So what happens next you ask. They have 2 choices. They can shut down the social system, eg health care, pensions, everything, and pay down the debt by cutting spending, or they can print money (monetize the debt). You have to remember that the US gov ha huge unfunded liabilities, eg social care, freddie and fanny.
Seeing what they have done so far, I think when everyone stops buying the US debt as they know they will never pay it back, there is a good chance Benny will roll out the printing press and destroy the US dollar.
When this occurs, I think there will be a flood to every other currency that is stable, eg AU, CAD, YEN, EUR. There will be a good chance that the US dollar will be replaced as the global currency and I think most liukely this will be the Euro, as nobody wants the chinese to control the markets.