Bearfoil ...
We are looking at a Rudder pivot hinge destroyed by Rudder deployment beyond its limit load, i.e. aerodynamic failure.
Where did the rudder get the loading from? According to the BEA, when they had Airbus check the RTLU, it was found to be set at 7.9° +/- 0.1°, which is the limit in Normal Law at Mach 0.8 at FL350. The RTLU setting indicates that CAS was dropping at the time the switch to Alternate Law took place.
This means that CAS was 272 +/- 2 KTS, but we don't know what the OAT was, nor if the a/c was at its nominal M0.82, or as the CAS dropped, the A/THR was increasing that speed. So, are you proposing that overspeed could well be responsible for the V/S and Rudder damage? I would have expected to see trailing edge buffet damage if that was the case.
The Port Outer Spoiler was located north and east of most other debris, but that could well be because it was not affected by wind when in the water, and its drift represented the actual near surface current without any leeway component on account of windage.
mm43