I am relying heavily on AA 587's aerodynamic failure and loss of VS/Rudder. That occurred at less than 250 knots, ostensibly with control inputs. Considering 447 was travelling at nearly twice that speed with iffy control, well, let me say there is very little to go on, but I cannot think of a better witness to the tragic accident than a complete VS/Rudder. If it stayed with the a/c until impact, you are challenged with a two part explanation of its removal, a vertical impact, and a rebound. My surmise needs one explanation, I like the easy way, as did Occam.