Hi JD-EE. I am not following the "prying" portion of your explanation.
Essentially, tha a/c did a "tail plant" (although a 'shallow one'), per the BEA's initial report. Five degrees is acceptable for a normal landing, and if you saw Sully's landing, that comes fairly close to my picture of 447's entry. However, one must subtract all but a little Horizontal motion, The large Vertical vector was responsible for the damage almost totally, if one is reading the report correctly. Again, if the VS/Rudder were attached at this point, the momentum of the unit would force the parts into the mounting bed of the tail, not "pull it away". If the Horiz was stopped abruptly, the a/c (or Fuselage, such as it was) would pitch forward at some value, while mostly sinking well into the water. The 'tail cone' would have been crushed by the weight of the VS, whilst the joins (hoops) would have been deformed downward. I don't see a "rebound" sufficient in force to impart the energy needed for the VS to tear away from the mounts and fly forward. Keep in mind the hoops show serious damage, while the skin (Unfaired, the fairings were not present) is reasonably whole and intact, There is no damage consistent with a violent water entry on the VS.
Remember too, the VS is not attached to the tail cone, it is mounted on the dorsal longerons of the fuselage, embedded in truss work and brackets that span the medial longerons as well. The aft bulkhead is a part of the forward mount of the Vertical tail, a structure that is immensely robust, for obvious reasons.
Having seen 587's VS, the mode of failure seems reasonably consistent with the appearance of 447's assembly, that is, Radial separation from its joins from side loading that exceeded it's limits.
In short, I feel in comparing 447 with previous tail entry (Hudson) and side loaded failure, (587), there is ample room to entertain an early loss of VS/Rudder here.
What of the 5 degree pitch up at impact? If the wings were fully stalled, the vertical velocity would suggest a slight nose down instead, as the CG would be forward of the center of drag from the wings. (More wing area behind the CG than in front of). What does the Pitch suggest? It is possible that some of the Horizontal Stabilizer and elevator was missing. This would allow the tail to "droop" in a vertical descent, perhaps.
Position when found. The VS was by itself when spotted, how far from fuselage debris was it? The FA seats, crew rest, radome. etc.? Where was the left tip of the port elevator found?, The spoiler? Finding the spoiler in its condition suggests the question, "Where is the other wing debris?"
With its damage, the spolier, had it remained attached, would certainly have been found with wing flap, skin, wing fairing, etc.? So again, the spoiler may have been deployed (To slow down a very oversped airframe?), and been shorn off by the airstream. Finding cabin liner with port cutouts, and no "glass", along with interior parts in the same field implies a very violent disintegration, yet the galley stack and FA seats are in good condition. Much of the debris is inconsistent with "Intact at Impact". Analyze the Turkish 737's 'vertical' arrival on the ground. Tail Plant, Fuselage failure, and a serious impact of the nose, due to the tail drag and Pitch at first contact (High).
None of this writing is to be taken as "conclusions", it is just a supposition, based on very little, but based on evidence nonetheless.
bear