I'd be interested in comments on the following:
Looking at the animation of aircraft that passed through the area affected by convective weather on the night of the accident it's evident that those shown, with the exception of El Al, are all from the Air Fance group.
Can anyone list which other airlines passed through that area within an hour or so on the same night - I believe there was at least one Lufthansa and one TAM.
Whilst I understand that there are one way airways through the area I wonder why the Air France dispatchers flight planned their aircraft through the area of convective weather when other routes would have avoided it.
Comparing the tracks shown with my experience on BA in late December is interesting.
On December 29 the Atlantic turbulence forecast and storm cell maps which I accessed before my flight to LHR showed a large area of potential convective activity between 18.00 UTC and midnight UTC over and to the north of Rio, almost to the Natal/Recife area. The midnight to 06.00 UTC maps showed the storm area predicted to be reduced considerably but a cell was positioned off the coast between Natal/Recife and the Cape Verde islands with embedded CBs from 450 downwards - the cell was forecast to be astride the most direct routes available.
At 20.00 UTC there was a severe storm over Rio with heavy rain, windshear and regular lightning which lasted about an hour and closed the airport for around 45 minutes.
By the time we took off at 01.40 UTC the storm had long passed but the ride to the Atlantic was punctuated by some episodes of moderate turbulence, patches of cloud as we climbed to cruise level and patches of cloud in the cruise which gave light turbulence.
Following the route on the seat back video, we flew well inland, away from the remnants of the storm system, and exited the coast a few miles to the west of Forteleza. Our north north easterly track took us around the west of the forecast Atlantic storm cell and we were some 400 miles off the coast before we turned north east towards the Cape Verde Islands, which we eventually crossed after a further dog leg just north of the Equator. Apart from the odd ripple the flight over the ocean was turbulence free.
Given the South Atlantic is far less busy than the North Atlantic tracks and that the airways in the area can be used to avoid many of active cells which frequent the ITCZ, why would experienced crew accept routings through weather that could be avoided and put thermselves to extra work avoiding the worst of the weather and at risk should all the holes in the cheese line up?
Looking at this image for the night of the accident:
http://avherald.com/img/af_a332_f-gz...90601_sat0.jpg
it would seem that, even though the cells sometimes move unpredictably, a more westerly routing would have been smoother, less stressful on the crew and ultimately safe.