Firewall- more than happy to get you up to speed, since you are too lazy to read the thread.
As previously stated, the reason for the AUDs apparent bouyancy is the amount of quantitive easing being undertaken by the yanks. They are printing money hand over fist, putting record amounts to market in an avalanche of issue. Very, very hard for the USD to appreciate in those circumstances.
As to 4PWs ideas about the USD strengthening due to increased demand "because the world's debt is denominated in USD".........
Let's say that a country has to buy some stuff, and the person that they trade with wants oranges as payment. We go to the market, and find that 1 AUD buys one orange. We borrow an orange, and exchange it for the goods. At some time in the future, we will have to buy an orange, plus another orange as interest, and give those two oranges back to the party we borrowed them from. In the mean time, the orange grower (paying no heed to demand) dumps crates and crates of oranges on the market. When our loan falls due, we go to the market and find 1 AUD buys 4 oranges. We repay the loan of an orange, plus the interest of an orange, and expend only .50 AU cents.
Is the fault in his logic evident? The market is influenced by many factors- not just debt. In the present circumstances, the supply of money is large, so large that the market cannot absorb it (to the point that one arm of the US govt is buying treasuries issued by another, in order to prevent a collapse in value).
As far as my personal forcast for currencies- see naked-recommiting's post.