Look at the last quarter of 2009 and note:
1) Car scrapage scheme coming to an end in December.
2) Last quarter before 2.5% VAT increase.
3) Last quarter before stamp duty threshold reduced on property purchases.
4) Christmas
Despite all those significant incentives to bring forward major spending into that quarter they could only manage a 0.1% rise in GDP. The figures are routinely adjusted up or down by 0.1 - 0.2% as more detailed figures are processed in later months.
GDP is a crap measure anyway. If the government spends £10,000 paying a contractor to dig a hole and then another £10,000 to another contractor to fill it in again then the GDP will have grown by £20,000. Its like trying to decide if a computer is 'good' based only on the size of its hard drive.
The real kicker is M4 money supply is falling again and did so in Sep/Oct/Nov and Dec. QE is ending. IR's will rise. Taxes up. Public sector employment plunging.
We're still in this.
Airlines haven't finished going bust yet.
WWW