Not entirely.
What you have to understand is that it isn't so much a salaried occupation any more, it is more of a theme park ride! It often reminds me of a cheaper and much more popular version of those Soyuz rocket launches, where wealthy individuals buy themselves into the programme in order to satisfy an ambition. Whilst they undoubtably displace a career astronaut, they do help to finance the whole operation and there is still an experienced commander on board.
Airlines desperately want to reduce, and if possible eliminate operating (input) costs wherever possible. If they could get rid of one of the pilots, they would do it in a heartbeat. They can't, so they are required to have "qualified" individuals in place. If they were (as they always used to be,) seeking the best qualified and experienced individuals they could obtain by competitive tendering, the rewards would reflect the supply and demand at the pitched level required. However what they have discovered is, that there is a large supply of individuals who are completely willing to pay for the " Airline First Officer" experience. These people are willing to pay sums in excess of £100,000 to buy the basic qualification that lets them sit in the seat. Then they will pay the airline for the type rating, the line training, the uniform, and all the paraphanalia that goes with the task.
So successful has this been from a revenue standpoint, that a new industry has been created that in many ways is even better than the original desire to simply remove the seat altogether. In some airlines, and that number is growing, the right hand flight deck seat is the most profitable seat on the aircraft!
A great many people seem to screw their eyes shut tight and think that if they pay for this theme park ride, by the time they open their eyes again, the world will somehow have changed, the queue will have evaporated, and the airlines will be pleading for them to work for the salaries they might have been offered a decade ago for their services. What really happens is, they open their eyes to discover the theme park has got bigger, the rides are more expensive and their particular adventure is over!
So what of the future?
It is always difficult to predict something that is uncertain, however a good indicator would be to look at what is happening now.
Firstly, there is no evidence that the supply of revenue from "Buy to fly" candidates is going to dry up anytime soon. There are airlines in the UK and around the world that are investing heavily in buildings, simulators, and other infrastructure, to cater purely to this new ab-initio market. Given the sharp recession, a clear sign of just how confident they are in this future revenue stream.
On top of that, there is a ready supply of experienced pilots available from the corporate casualties of the last few years, as well as those that may be yet to come.
Then there are the changes in legislation that have over the last few years extended the average pilots working life by anything up to ten full years. Coupled with the general state of the economy, this has all but eliminated any demand that might have been caused by natural wastage.
In 3 months from now, there will be changes in pension legislation that will raise the early retirement age from 50 to 55. This will undoubtably result in many senior pilots drawing pension benefits early. This will be seen as both a protection strategy in a very unstable market, and it will enable those same pilots to endure anything up to 40% salary cuts without any discernable change to their individual short term lifestyles. If you don't think that will have an impact on the general market conditions you are deluding yourself.
Many of these same pilots will also accept that they now must continue to work many years passed their planned retirement dates to sustain their future plans. Indeed changes to taxation levels coming next year in 2011 in the UK, will impose significant penalties on many pilots at the top of the earnings ladder, such that reductions in salary levels, coupled with pension cushions, will almost be welcome. Of course any downward pressure on terms and conditions will permeate throughout the entire industry.
It is very hard to see where the "good news" might be in the short or even medium term, when you look at the real world fundamentals. However going back to the original point of the thread, why does it matter what you think is a good salary, when this is simply becoming an entertainment experience. You pay the theme park, it doesn't pay you. If you think it is bad now, just wait and see what the future holds. That is before the industry focus starts to move from from the revenue potential in the right seat to that in the left.