As automation and back-ups and reliability improve to new levels, the 1 pilot and his dog (automated of course) is coming ever closer. In 1980 the B767 could be plugged in at 400' on departure and land itself at the other end. It couldn't takeoff by itself, nor stop itself, but how difficult would that be to engineer? However, would any pax get on board? How many would get on a 1 pilot a/c? How many, boarding via a finger, even know what a/c they are on, know how many pilots there are or even care about any of it? There is blind faith in the CAA's not licencing anything unsafe. If it is EU approved it must be OK. They look only at the price and comfort. The engineers and trainers also look at risk management. If there have been no significant incidents in Xzillion flying hours of type XYZ why train pilots to deal with them. What is needed is automated zombie button pushers who do not let the levels of boredom lead them to thinking "I wonder what will happen if I push this one...". We already have an attitude of don't think, do, with many aspects of our profession. It starts with recruitment. They advertise for multi-tasking, team orientated, clear thinking, well educated, methodical, customer friendly pilots trainees with good leadership qualities. Then, when they've got you, and you are wearing the shiny uniform, you are told to shut up and do as you are told; don't think too much, just do your job. Talk about a mis-match. If they can dumb down the starting requirements to what is really required in the future automated world, and have aeroplane operators who are more practical and have manual skills rather than intellectual qualifications, then the T'c & C's will have really fallen, and so will the ticket price. As it is a customer, bums on seats, driven industry, who's to say they'll be wrong. I'm sure the Hotol would have been fully automated with a crew of button pushers. I doubt V1 cuts would have featured in the training; or perhaps yes, as the CAA's still looked backwards.
But then I could also take the B767 into Calvi for a circle within the mountains. Pax wanted to there, so the pilots had to have the skills. Is there a case for various types of pilot qualifications? The LHR-any major airport pilot, and the Greek islands on a thunderous night type pilot? There are float-plane licences, crop spray licences, aerobatic licences, N.Atlantic MNPS ratings, CAT C airfield ratings, so why not major route- big aeroplane only ratings, and the rest of us. Trouble with that is the unions will cream off the most bucks for the glamorous easiest jobs, and the real hands-on pilots will get the crumbs. However, if the above becomes true, and the big aeroplane only drivers have very basic licences and annual tests on their excellent button pushing skills with their eyes closed, perhaps the pie will be cut differently. The last 40 years may help foretell the next 40. Jets, autolands, higher speeds, longer ranges, no F.E's., beds on board for the lucky ones, FDR's & CVR's, ETOPS, etc. etc.
This is all very tongue in cheek, and it's getting harder to make predictions, especially about the future.