Thinking about this the other day.
I have a theory. Be it wrong or right, only time will tell.
A lot of captain's and older f/o's who were unable to climb the seniority tree quick enough, would have lost considerable amounts of money in 2008/2009 global crisis.
For the one's who held on to their jobs in the hope of a turn around before retirement, I am sure, would have drawn a fairly deep line in the sand and will be thinking to themselves, if my stocks, shares or geared fund reaches point X and I have X amount in the bank, then I am out of the game. Seriously, the older drivers can not risk another collapse. They can not afford to lose money in that way again.
I feel that the surplus that is spoken of, will be absorbed through retirements in 2010. Having seen the pay out given to darth after we took a flexi line in order to save our jobs, they have money. The DON'T want to get rid of us. They want the current pilots to work there, the flexi line was a drive down of pay (and conditions, as leave is accrued at the rate of the hours you take for the bid period).
There will be no redundancies, I feel there might be just enough with the retirements at the top, and hopefully a bit of movement onwards and upwards. There are training slots already under way in Qantas. Guys are being trained up on the 737 for Perth spots and a few over east, Perth is a port that should expand given that Qantas are upgrading the terminals at Broome, Karratha and Headland. I would expect to see the operation in WA grow, especially backed by the Gorgon Project off Barrow Island. I know they are not contracted for the work, but struth, there has to be a flow on effect resulting from an extra 3000 people working in that area!
The 330 training is ramping up. Things on the 74's might be slow, but with a reduction of numbers, and the replacement of the 747's with one A380 each time, they still need drivers for them. IF the dugon replaced 2 747's at a time, then I would be concerned. Expect the 74's to be around in some capacity for many many years to come. They don't retire fleet's quickly. Eg, the 767 and the Classic. The 74's that are painted in the new paint scheme will hang around for a long while, the old paint job planes, I would have thought will start to be retired. One more new A330 coming too.
There is room to move in Qantas. In Qantas, not into Qantas.
im(a)ho.