My understanding is there will be no promotions to SQNLDR this year, and a couple to WGCDR. The RAAF probably would like to see a few more resignations this year to allow some of the young talent to move up the chain. If this year is like the last two, then there will be far too many pilots, because the training tap is not going to be turned off.
On the other hand, there are probably a lot of guys just waiting for Qantas mainline to start hiring (it will surely be doing so at some point); and then I would think there would be a massive cleanout.
Either way with so many O4's and O5's clogging the system it's not a good time to be facing a posting.