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Old 28th Dec 2009, 05:53
  #24 (permalink)  
Dick N. Cider
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: The land down-under
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In Radar environments in Oz there is Short Term Conflict Alert - 90 second look ahead and not really about collision risk, focussed upon break down of radar separation.

GAFA (no surveillance) no alert yet available. Flight Plan Conflict Probe (utilising pilot reporting) is functional but not yet operationally validated and implemented. It will be as good as the data fed into it. Awaiting system upgrades prior to roll out.

Regardless of how good the alerts might or might not be, the best defence is alert controllers and pilots. Either can make a mistake and what's important is that something is done to fix the mistake when recognised - TCAS, STCA, GPWS etc. are all last ditch defences. The systems should be robust enough that you don't get to the last throw of the dice.

Random tracks work on the big sky theory but navigational tolerances on some aircraft can be huge. Proving separation when not on fixed route structures without significant system improvements will push controller workload in some airspaces so high that there will be an elevated risk of operator errors. Reciprocal tracks at standard levels help, plenty of track crossings where standard levels put you at the same level. A place for everything.

There are probably multiple factors to consider here.
First is the "can do" culture that has sprung up in Oz over the past 20 years.
20 years is quite a long time for something to "spring up". The guys and girls that do this stuff are very good. That being said we are all human, yes even those with 4 bars on their shoulders. Operators within Australian administered airspace expect more flexibility, optimum route and levels than they would consider safe in many other parts of the world (indeed in much of the world), they can't have it both ways. Either accept the additional fuel burn or look again at the risk modelling and let us know what you want.

No doubt this incident will attract very close scrutiny. It's not the first time that it's happened, nor will it be the last. The reporting will always strive to sensationalise. I look forward to reading the final report on the investigation. What we don't need is a knee jerk trying to make someone a scapegoat, rather the simple "just culture" premise that we need to focus upon preventing repeat occurrences and treat those involved fairly.

DNC
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