Ryanair began preparing their bid weeks ago. Not that it was unexpected, Aer Lingus began the preparation of their defence of the hostile takeover bid around the same time, shortly after Mueller became CEO. It's amusing seeing Ryanair deny that they want to make a new bid whilst at the same time those in the know in the financial sector know exactly what's going on behind the scenes.
Not alot has changed in terms of their previous bid last year. Privately I'm led to believe that the Government have indicated they are not for selling. Publicaly of course they have to go through the motions and say they will discuss it when the formal bid is made. ESOT, Tailwind et all not for swaying either. It's quite likely that other shareholders will allow a year to see what the latest restructuring measures, soon to be finalised will bring next year. They have very little to lose at the current share price. Whatever about the Shareholding, the key to them being succesful will be the Government, as it will have a major impact on the eventual ruling should it make it that far by the EU Commission. Like I said above I'm led to believe they won't budge.
Note the timing of the soon to be announced tie up with Aer Arann and remember the Government position on Aviation policy. The tie up allows both airlines access to Domestic, European and American markets through various code shares. The Government Aviation policy again rings in my head and their position on a one airline monopoly. I'm also led to believe that that should the Government fall the main opposition parties have also stated their positions privately to a one airline monopoly in the country. I can't help but thinking Ryanair should have delayed their argument, justified or not with Shannon airport until after they made their official bid. T2 to be opened later in 2010 and their postion on not using it won't help their cause either, again with justification or not.
Last edited by Lord Lardy; 26th Dec 2009 at 21:37.