Fat Chris - I agree with your earlier post completely but you missed the point regarding my reference to the Dutch. I wasn't trying to compare empires - just using the example of how history may be repeated. From my understand, during the Dutch version of Planning Rounds and the need to make savings, the removal of the P3 MPA capability was offered up as an option, with the full expectation that no Defence Minister would sign up to it. Unfortunately, the option was taken and the capability has been removed, probably for ever. So ask yourself - are you 100% certain, that could never happen to the Kipper Fleet?
If we prove we can 'make do' without the MR2 capability, which may happen because nothing comes up in the next 2 years that could only have been dealt with by a Nimrod - then in the current climate, that makes the aircraft 'desirable' and not 'essential' and therefore places the future at risk. Yes of course, the capability will be missed and I'm sure Nimrod customers will feed that up the chain. But when it gets to the higher level and the RN is faced with the option of supporting the RAF or risking cuts to Astute, what decision do you think they will make?
Then take a guess of how much support, the Nimrod Force gets at the top table of the RAF? On the basis that AFG is the clear priority, CAS, AT, SH and ISR come far higher than ASW, noting that other assets have succesfully taken on the ISR role previously carried out by the MR2. Remember the decision makers will all be FJ men, fully aware of the great job that Harrier/Tornado has done/is doing in the Stan and fully behind a strong AD capability for the UK. Faced with the requirement to make cuts, what options do you think they will propose if backs are against the wall?
Simplistic - maybe, but remember we are in unchartered territory and the country is facing bankruptcy. Our only hope is that our leadership can see beyond the immediate short term and still plan on a balance of capabilities. Sorry to be so pessimistic but in my 26 years of RAF life, this is the first time that my own personal morale meter has started to dip and I'm really starting to wonder how the future is going to look....