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Old 11th Dec 2009, 16:41
  #2163 (permalink)  
Momentary Lapse
 
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In case you guys n gals hadn't noticed, there is a recession on, largely affecting the middle class.

They are exactly the sort of people who buy the travel products and services that are now struggling, whether the airline ticket, the lounge, the car parking or the duty free.

Similarly, businesses are tightening their belts, so business travel budgets will be cut.

Flying is no longer glamorous: it's lengthy, tiring, and complicated (security reqts, US visas, luggage surcharges, distant car parking etc.). By contrast, rail quality has improved (Paris and beyond are now feasible by rail).

There is less demand for bucket and spade leisure, because domestic holidays are now more pleasant, whether in one of our much-improved city centres, or by the seaside.

Just as Berni Inns and Wimpey, once the height of sophistication, have disappeared to be replaced by Pizza Express, Costa, or Frankie and Benny's, so air travel has had its day and will be replaced by Euro or domestic city breaks or leisure in better quality coastal resorts. Ditto Woolworths for Amazon.

People are also more aware of the environmental angle of travelling long distances, regardless of method, and in the short term they've got less money to even afford any travel.

Life is moving on, and cheap and easy air travel with reliable traffic growth is gone forever.

I'm going to Europe for my hols next summer. I'll either get a cheap ferry from Dover, or a cheap train via St Pancras. I won't be flying, because of security hassle, duty free rip-offs, luggage surcharges, travel to/from the airport and of course the environmental issues.

The airport/airline industry is irrelevant to most people. I remember a stat used at MAG once upon a time: most MAN travellers on average use it five times a year. So, ten trips per traveller, divided into 20m pax. That's just 2m unique travellers using MAN. That's about 58m UK people who haven't used it this year. I bet more people used Woolworths on a regular basis, and look what happened there!

It's sad to see the industry curl up and die, but it's happening. In fifty years people will be shocked at the careless and decadent use of air travel, just like people look back now at smoking in restaurants, or smog over London.
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