TRSS - you're more than a little disingenuous by mentioning other airlines redundancies. In the main the respective CCs have done their level best to prevent job losses - sometimes with 100% success.
As an example I think you are missing the point with BALPA's negotiations last year with Thomson about the then surplus. As a result of last years negotiations a deal was done to keep up to 96 pilots in work - in practice the number was just over 40. Other measures were taken, career breaks and voluntary severance in order to prevent compulsory redundancies. The company had to listen and work with BALPA. Result - no compulsory redundancies (the original figure was nearly 200)
This time around the negotiations are probably not going to be anything like this, possibly there's a bit more to it than just a simple surplus. In the past, the same managers, when they managed First Choice, would have just imposed a settlement. With a strong union they have to talk. It also has to be accepted that sometimes the talks won't go the way the pilots would want it to but the talks still take place.
Contrast this with what happens when RYR have to scale back - effectively what has happened during this downturn. Compulsory time off (contractors = no pay). Sounds like the hourly rate for contractors will be reduced - negotiation not required as they're contractors. All new joiners on a BRK contract - don't have to pay them off and no union monkeyshines from them either. I can guess only too well what would happen if there had to be large scale layoffs. It'd be carnage. No union, no voice. Saying ah it'll never happen 'cos we're Ryanair doesn't really cut it.
BALPA isn't perfect but with a good CC and solid backing from the pilots an airline has to take note if there's an objection to what's going on.
The flexi-crew / cadet thing is another matter. I believe that BALPA did take their collective eye off the ball on that but to suggest that it was done so as to benefit individual CC members is a very poor thing to say
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If anything the failing was at a national level - and something that they finally seem to be getting their teeth into.
EZ management would probably love to have their pilots as cowed as they are in Ryanair (which airline management wouldn't). If the CC with full support of the pilots successfully fights against the erosion in Ts and Cs, it won't happen.
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