Code:
Big difference between the two. There was massive unemployment in Bahrain amongst the Shia in the 90's with very few benefits. The 94-95 riots were due to the Sunni getting preferential treatment and government jobs. In addition Bahrain has a substantial population.
Dubai has a relatively small native population and I would hazard to guess almost no native unemployment as there are more than enough public sector jobs to keep all of them employed.
Surely DXB has a far smaller population however relative to the Bahrainis they are less literate and consequently paid far more for their skills. Alot of this high wages was sustained by the excessses that have come back to bite.
In the resulting economic contraction, it is these locals that are going to be hit hard. Landlords will be chasing a smaller population of tenants, so part of the extended family that previously lived off rentals will be in the jobs market. And when i talk about DXB i mean all the emirates north of DXB. The beauty of AUH is that it is south of DXB and hence insulated from the less fortunate northern brothers.
To put the whole thing into perspective the future size of the economy is likely to be the size of Sharjah for the rest of UAE (minus AUH) and they will have to share it among themselves, EK, AA, RAK et all.
Code:
There are no alternatives tr Dubai. The only potential alternatives would be Abu Dhabi or Bahrain, but neither one of them has the current infrastructure to support them nor would the have the intentions to start another building bubble to support them.
Right now DOHA has the most sound position to be a regional trading hub. It has the US Centcom for security, Largest proven reserves of natural gas in the world and a strong infrastructure with adequate capacity to accomodate any influx from Dubai. DOHA has been attracting EU stock exh in to stimulates its finance sector, in light of little or no competition they might win the battle. AUH might end up doing a deal with DOHA to extend support to it to be a Intl finance centre while retaining a-itself as a regional culture cum political centre i.e. Brussells of ME. Bahrain was the poor cousin emulating DXB, its CDS spreads reflect the market position. Saudi and Kuwait are ruled out.
Muscat has the most affordable economy, to sustain the expat lifestyle in this era of ltd or no credit globalised world. It has some of the most beautifull beaches in Salaah region. In a era of Digital economy and LCC, i see expats rediscovering OMAN.