I take your point regarding the more sophisticated manner in which risk is assessed these days.
I remember when a number of high houred (20,000 hrs plus) experienced captains left my first airline the average hours per pilot plummeted. The insurance company was concerned.
I wonder how the demographics will work out for the low cost airlines when they consistently take on low houred pilots?
The Cadets of today are probably flying with relatively high houred captains still.
If this trend continues these same Cadets will become (relatively) low houred captains of tomorrow (say with 5,000 hrs) flying with 200 hr Cadets. So the total experience in the flight deck will be much reduced.
How will risk be assessed then?
The insurance companies must, to some extent, take into account the average age and experience of the pilots in any particular airline - or maybe the direct effect will be more 'incidents' of the type mentioned above due to this relative inexperience?
I suppose only time will tell - these are uncharted waters after all.
KR
FOK