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Old 17th Nov 2009, 10:28
  #168 (permalink)  
Justiciar
 
Join Date: May 2003
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This is a very entertaining thread! Particularly amusing is one person's negative obsession with Cirrus.

It seems to me that you cannot divorce these issues from what goes on in the wide world and from the hugh social and economic changes which have occured in the post war years but particularly in the last ten to fifteen years.

In the immediate post war period there was the start of a new golden age in aviation, mainly in the US. As factories switched from war to peace time production we say the genesis of whole new ranges of aircraft manufactured to then modern standards with modern materials. Piper, Cessna, Mooney and Beechcraft all developed their iconic products in the immediate post war years. America was not bankrupt like the UK. People had money, these manufacturers were producing aircraft which were faster, easier to fly and safer. People had money to burn and personal transport was something that many aspired to, in an age when commercial air travel was still expensive.

Things have now changed in a way which makes it very difficult for any company to be a volume producer of touring aircraft. Air travel is dirt cheap, destinations have proliferated and at the same time aviation (GA) has become more regulated, fuel much more expensive and air space more congested and restricted, at least in Europe. People have more and varied things to spend their money on so aircraft come down the list. It is no coincidence that the average age of pilots is going up (as is the average age of attenders at things like Oskosh).

Against this background, it is hardly surprising that to make a profit a company like Cirrus has to market like a car maker or washing machine seller! They see their mission as to turn a personal light aircraft from being a specialised product to something akin to a main stream consumer product, all be it an expensive one. Compare the present to the former PC market. It was not long ago that to buy a computer you went to a specialist; now any store sells them!

There will still be a hard core of avaitors who dislike the modern image and marketing of Cirrus and prefer the older design of a Mooney or a TB20. However, they will be in a minority and as time goes on they will be an ever diminishing minority. No manufacturer will ever again I suspect build to suit such a small market. Recent events at Mooney show that it is virtually impossible to weather an economic storm of the sort we have just been through.

My prediction (not much of one really as it is already happening) is that the future of light aviation is in small LSA/VLA aircraft which are cheap to operate, can fly from small strips (useful with the cost of landing at many licensed airfields) and which run on mogas or diesel (the future is limited for Avgas thanks to new environmental lobbying in the US and elsewhere). They will be day VFR, which is all the majority of pilots aspire to. No, these aircraft are not as robust as a Piper or a Cessna, nor do thay have the payload, but they are hugely cheaper to build and to operate.

Arguments about depreciation of Cirrus versus Piper or Mooney are irrelevent. Any new product of this sort will depreciate hugely - even a new certified LSA will depreciate significantly, as does almost any consumer item these days. Mass produced anything will tend to wear and look tatty quicker than something made 50 years ago (comparison with cars is very relevant). That is "progress". That same object will at the same time be far cheaper to manufacture and to manufacturer to a high standard and be a more technically competent product than something 50 years old.
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