bral - thanks for your corrections re. INS>LGW.
I'm only working on anecdotal evidence so since you're the man who has to sign the sheet you certainly know better than me!
BTW: Do you know where I can get accurate load-factor details for all scheduled UK carriers. Admittedly I haven't been digging that hard but it doesn't seem to be published anywhere easily accessible!
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You start off with an empty bag of experience and a full bag of luck. The trick is to fill the bag of experience before you empty the bag of luck.