Hello Norman,
Lovely to see you as always, but I think you're being a bit unfair in slamming Astraeus in the way you have, and especially for rolling out your cobra tie criticism, an old favourite you usually hold in store for me. Should I feel jealous?
Aer Lingus are screwed, Norman. The reasons why they're screwed are complex, and certainly for the ordinary line pilots and flight attendants I feel rather sad since, clearly, they've yet to grasp the fact that they were doomed from the moment of privatisation. This is an airline with SIPTU representation, a union that make the Teamsters look like a picnic for autistic nuns, on its own board of Directors, for heaven’s sake.
Aer Lingus' central problem is that for every second of its existence since privatisation, it has been used shamelessly by a series of governments as a political football, and a series of unions as a trough in which to bury their snouts. Our Willy knew very well that Aer Lingus needed to be modified post-haste in order to complete with the local Gorilla, and I’m sure I don’t need remind you who that is. Lets forget for the time being about its fortunes within a suffocatingly competitive trans-Atlantic market, but Willy left for BA when it was made plain by Taoiseach Bertie (Bubbles) Ahern, that his vision for a truly competitive Aer Lingus would never be realised.
Enter stage left the gutless and emasculated Dermot Mannion, a man who represents to corporate backbone what a soggy stick of celery is to load-bearing architecture, far more interested in the personal packing of his golden parachute than in running an airline that he was paid handsomely for, and Aer Lingus’ already critical problems were exacerbated whilst the new Taoiseach, despite encouraging words early on, has placed Aer Lingus in the too-hard basket too, while the rather larger problem of Ireland’s financial collapse occupies his thinking.
These desperate days, under the stewardship of Christoph Mueller, a man so committed to the future of AERL that he commutes from Brussels rather than relocate to Dublin, and we have an airline with three hundred odd million €uro in the bank, currently losing €2,000,000 every 24 hours. That's €60 million down the jacks every month and it doesn't take a first from Cambridge in maths to realise that the Aer Lingus story can't go on for much longer.
Dr. Death, Herr Mueller, who hasn't held the same job longer than nine months in the past 10 years, has decided to shrink long-haul and expand short-haul, beyond the borders of the EU (so far, so good) in order to better compete with you-know-who (VERY bad idea). He knows this is necessary because swinging arrays of job losses are about to be announced from the pilot corps, among others. Unfortunately, the seniority system will dictate LIFO (last in first out), which means pilots in LGW and BHD first out, to be replaced by DUB based pilots on a vastly superior contracts, thus defeating the purpose of the exercise in the first place. Oh dear, here we go again.
Three big problems I can see from the get go. First of all, IALPA will squeal like stuck pigs (refer to Carmoisine's helpful letter in the post above) and threaten to throw their toys from the cot, (in the run up to Christmas, naturally) and Dr. Death will have no option but to cave in and relocate higher paid and better protected DUB pilots into LGW, at inflated rates and on full travel expenses, which is where our friends at Astraeus come in. Second, he has no way of competing with Ryanair, even beyond the EU boundaries, so long as their production cost is almost double ours and, crucially, with zero union inclination to cooperate.
Thirdly, Mueller’s strategy is to hold on and wait for a white knight to come galloping over the Irish Sea, hoping they don't swallow their remaining 300 million before the lights go out, or union malevolence depletes forward bookings entirely. You can almost hear the laughter from FRA CDG and LHR. The entire AERL board is gathered at the Bailey Light, gazing forlornly eastward, seeing nothing but an indifferent Albion in the far distance. Sad when you think the only thoroughbred stallion in a position to have Aer Lingus not only survive, but also thrive, has been twice ejected from the stable. Oh well, there's no accounting for the stupid gene.
You see Norman; it is the unions you speak so longingly of who are truly to blame for this dreadful state of affairs, and
IALPA with its tiny jockey in particular. Aer Lingus will shortly collapse under the weight of its own hubris, taking hope and history down with it, and Ryanair will pick up the choicest bits among the rubble, including those fifty lovely slot-pairs at LHR, so I think it a bit unfair of you to blame
Astraeus for having a tiny little sniff in the Shamrock trough as it circles the drain. IALPA has been snorting at it like a herd of cocaine-addicted elephant for decades.
Love to your wife.
Leo.