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Old 6th Nov 2009, 03:05
  #4 (permalink)  
speeeedy
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
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Whilst it is never possible to there is "zero" risk of anything, I believe it is fair to say that there was no "real" risk of that aeroplane landing without gear.

The pilots should have put the gear down earlier, no doubt, but when the mistake was realised the aircraft commenced the go-around before the SOP's require the aircraft to be stable (if it was VMC) or only just after (If it was IMC).

Would the pilots be proud, NO. Would the company be proud, NO. But were they going to stack it.....NO WAY!

In order to land without gear the following would have to happen.

1. Pilots miss putting gear down (only a memory item - albeit a pretty fundamental one) at say 1500 to 2000' - Seems to have happened in this case - perhaps (facts yet to be established).

2. Pilots pass 1000ft without being stable (Not technically required if VMC, but in the SOP's it is the AIM, so everyone obviously tries to be stable by 1000') - It is only 20 seconds from 1000 to 700 so it is likely this particular defence actually worked as intended in this case, i.e. pilots pass 1000, not happy, assess the situation and after deciding it is not possible to be stable by 500' they go around... Exactly as intended.

But, what if defence 2 had failed also, the following defence are in place prior to landing with the gear up....

3. Landing checklist is missed or incorrectly done - Checklists are there for when we forget things, they have work quite well for decades - no reason to think it would have been any different in this case.

4. PF passes 500ft without being stable - Highly Unlikely - he/she would have noticed that the Thrust would have been all wrong for the situation, probably speed too.

5. PNF calls out "STABLE" at 500' without being stable - again highly unlikely - The PNF has a very good look around at thrust, speed, and CONFIGURATION before calling "STABLE" as per the SOP's.

6. Gear Warning (Flap Related) Fails - ties in with previous because if the flap wasn't in the final flap AND no gear there is NO way that the aircraft would have the trust or speed anything like required for a "STABLE" call at 500.

7. Flap warning (Radio Altitude) Fails - this ties in with number 6, in that if the gear warning didn't occur because the flaps were not in final config then the flap warning would have.

8. EGPWS Warning (Terrain floor) Fails.

9. GPWS Gear Warning (Radio Altitude) Fails.

So lets put it in perspective please. Of the 9 holes in the cheese that needed to be lined up, these pilots went through the 1st one only.

Therefore I am very confident that I can say there was no real risk to this aeroplane at any time.

The media should realise that forgetting something (even really important stuff) is a well recognised fault of the human being, that is exactly why in aviation we don't rely purely on memory, there are multiple layers to pick up errors because we know for a fact that errors do occur.
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