If this year FR makes around 200m euro profit on 67m pax then it works out the full year profit of 3 euro per pax. The results for the summer show them making about 10.6 euros per pax. In the winter they will lose around 3-5 euros per pax on average.
They have a fuel bill for this summer of 12.65 euros per pax when they got jet fuel at 613 euros/tonne in Q1 and 630e/t in Q2. For the summer of 2010 the 50% they hedged is at 663e/t and 741e/t for q1 & q2 (strangely they call that year fy 2011 as it ends march 2011). There is a very strong case that profit next year will only be 1-2 euros per pax and that will be their last year of profit.
Their inablity to sell aircraft at book value will mean they need to carry a too large a fleet in 2010 & 2011 or need to sell them at a significant loss.
Over the next few days the so called experts will do the maths and project profits for the next 3 years. Profitablity will be very dependant on the oilprice they model but the market for 2nd hand planes could be just as important. You cannot just put 500 million euors of aircraft on ebay and expect a good price.