start of the fall of ryanair
Ryanair is so vast and has such a large cash pile that any fall will take many years. The results out today mark a corner in the airlines history.
In the first half year (Jan-june) they took in less money even though they "sold" more seats. They have got to the point were growing reduces income. The logical move is to reduce growth and firm up the selling price per set as Easyjet have done. To do this FR need to change their order for 100+ more 737s. Boeing will not let FR do this as it is one of their biggest orders. FR is dangling a bigger future order but I cannot see FR switching to airbus so Boeing have a strong hand.
Next year FR will see higher fuel costs, have problems selling on aircraft and need to drop prices to fill even more planes. 2010 could be its last ever year of profit. A large part of FRs profits are in effect made by getting planes at a massive discount, trashing them for 5 years and then getting around the same price for them that they paid. That model is broke. They only sold 3 planes in the first half of 2009. They are also having to reduce the book value of the planes. With a need to sell 20-40 planes per year, the 2nd hand market is key to profits and cash flow.
I have not heard a comment yet about the oil price at which the become loss making with their lower income per seat.