Times have changed and so has the advice.
Well, I reckon the advice should be essentially the same regardless of what point of the cycle the industry is in. The reason being that the time it takes for the industry to go from 'good' to 'bad' is shorter than the time required to do the whole process of selecting a school, getting on a course and completing it. Consequently it's
never a smart move to spend that which you can not afford to lose.
Really, spending money on professional flight training as an investment is in the 'insanely risky' category. It is more realistic to think of it like lending money to a relative; done for love rather than the certainty of ever getting it back!
If you must train then do so slowly, via modular, keeping debt as low as possible and leave the IR and the ATPL exams as late as possible. Train cheap, borrow little, take your time.
This is pretty good advice for most people. I'd amplify it a little, borrow as litle as possible but have the facility in place to borrow rapidly if you need too. I've seen too many tightly budgeted schedules come apart at the seams. Particularly for the IR it's essential to have a very generous cash reserve available so that any extra training or retesting can be done without interupting continuity.
There is nothing, NOTHING more pathetic, soul destroying and sad as a guy covered in rust, with a dusty CPL in his shirt pocket and a cobweb ridden log book desperately trying to keep his financial head above water whilst the industry totally ignores him.
Agreed. But this is a reason not to be in the industry at all. It has very little to do with *when* to train. As I've said before, there are a bunch of reasons NOT to get into this industry, and I wouldn't recommend it to anyone, but if we are discussing WHEN to train then it's implicit that the decision has been taken. In fact I'd argue that the person www describes above is more likely to be someone that trained towards the end of a boom.
Any small percentage training fee saving is swallowed whole by a single IR renewal.
For starters, it might not be a small percentage, and more importantly in slump times training and testing are available at the student's convenience. Depending on the student's existing profession the indirect savings / earnings related to this can be very substantial.
If you turn up a school, do a course, and then go back to your old life and wait for the airlines to start recruiting..... well..... good luck. The way forward in this industry (if you ignore the advice and are crazy enough to enter it) is to get involved as soon as you can (time waits for no one) and get to know people. In this game personal contacts = job opportunities. Against the benefit of that, the cost of a bit of refresher training now and then is insignificant. If that represents an unbearable financial burden then you've already overextended yourself.
Think of the industry as being like the national lottery. Yes, it's stacked against you, but if you don't buy a ticket you can't win. Personally though, I don't like gambling
So,its not a good time to train... because it's
never a good time to train, because the industry is a pile of steaming excrement. However, there are worse times to train, especially during booms!
Basically, when (or more likely IF) we see an improvement, there will be three categories of people.
1. Those that thought about flying but didn't do it who are X years into a different profession.
2. Those who are qualified, have gained relevant industrial experience in some form, and who have a network of contacts. Entering an airline job in the first wave of recruiting, such individuals often get early commands and training appointments.
3. Those who are sitting on the fence waiting for things to pick up before getting started, who hopefully will make it into a right hand seat before things go pear shaped again.
My advice is be in group 1. But if you don't want to be in group 1, you're far better off in group 2 rather than 3.
In summary, it may not be a 'good' time to train. It is however a 'least bad' time - if you are sensible, financially prudent, and dedicated.
pb