Originally Posted by
bjornhall
What one would not do, however, is to launch a single conventional missile against a nuclear armed opponent with an early warning capability, because then you would have to assume your opponent was doing what you would consider rational. But maybe that was what you meant all along...
Quite.
I was not suggesting that a rational or irrational opponent would send a single missile against us, but that we might be tempted to send a single missile against them. I was going to mention the BMEW case but then considered that the unannounced arrival of a supersonic conventional penetrator might be confused not with an exploding gas main but with a dud nuke.
On irrational foe might then react on the use it or lose it principle. The say of course applies if fleets of stealth bombers start to pick off his missiles one by one.
The rational-irrational argument is very similar to the assymetric warfare issues too.