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Old 13th Oct 2009, 15:07
  #43 (permalink)  
Mach E Avelli
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: All at sea
Posts: 2,199
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There's economic theory and economic reality. The reality is that until the demand for pilots exceeds the supply, conditions will remain p!ss-poor. Which will be for the rest of my career and then some. Operators won't pay a cent more than they have to until they actually have aircraft grounded for lack of crews, the leasing companies pounding on the door and passengers queuing up outside the terminal. There was a 'sweet spot' for pilots about 2 to 3 years ago when it did appear that aircraft would be grounded due to lack of crews. Now they are grounded due to lack of passengers. So the sweet spot did not last long enough for any long-term gains.
A strike won't work today any better than it did in 1989 because even if every airline pilot in Australia walked off the job, 'emergency' measures could be put in place just as they were last time to validate foreign licences. The economy would take a hit for a while but, as happened last time, it did recover.
Except for a few sh!thole places, the world supply of pilots is still in excess of demand, so we would be knocked over in the rush for our seats, should we collectively decide to vacate them. Sure, during the period immediately post-1989 there were numerous incidents and safety breaches, many of which were swept under the carpet. But nothing crashed, no-one got killed, so those in political power are unlikely to heed a safety argument.
Airline pilots are probably easier and safer to source from overseas than G.A. pilots would be, because of their common type ratings and the general similarity of IFR procedures on air routes everywhere in the world. What happened back in 1989 was quite disgraceful - both in the way government and the domestic airline managements conducted themselves - but also in the way that many of the 'band of brothers' broke ranks and took G.A. jobs which in turn affected the prospects of the younger ones just starting on the ladder. It was dog eat dog then and I don't think we pilots have evolved to more noble beings in just 20 years.
The fact that it is no longer an attractive career won't diminish the pilot supply. The QUALITY of the supply is another matter, as those further down the gene pool decide it would be fun to fly and to get one up on their mates driving taxis. While the ones further up the food chain give flying lessons a miss for more nerdy and profitable careers.
Airline managements will adapt to this trend as they always have - by moving their selection goal posts around to fit what is available at the time.
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