Airbus May be Right
Don't know.
There are plenty of old aircraft in the current fleet, especially in the U.S. and parts of Asia, which will need replacing. Fleet reductions have mostly represented getting rid of the old stuff, which there is no need to replace in the current economic environment.
Fuel costs have moderated since their peak, but any increase in fuel cost helps improve the business case for getting rid of the old iron and buying new, more efficient aircraft.
Travel has grown, and growth will resume with the end of the current economic turmoil. The overall trend has been up.
If we consider the Airbus forecast to cover all forms of airliner, then I think Airbus may be pretty close to what we will see over the next couple of decades.
As long as people want to travel, there will be airlines flying airliners to get them there.