Current MoD strategic assessment?
Bob Ainsworth, 15 Sept 2009
"In the 21st century it would appear that the threat of state on state warfare has receded.
While it is true that Britain faces no direct territorial challenge, as Hew Strachan has pointed out, the UK has been involved in four wars in the last 30 years - to recover the Falkands, the two Gulf Wars, and in Kosovo - where the opposing armed forces were those of another state.
Deterrence, both conventional and nuclear, remains a valid strategy.
But we have also been pitted against irregular forces – as in Iraq following the collapse of Saddam’s regime and now in Afghanistan.
Each of these conflicts carries within them aspects of both regular and irregular warfare.
The academic and intellectual debate on planning for defence against these different threats still rages.
I tend to agree with General Petraeus’s comment that “the truth is not to be found in any of these schools of thought, but rather in the debate among them”.
The growing trend in warfare is likely to be complexity - whether at sea, on land, or in the air – or in all probability an interdependent combination of all three."
If we agree with this view then what does this mean for the armed forces, and if it means more money can we wait a couple of years until the economy picks up?