PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Merged: The Ambidji Report – CASA should get their money back!
Old 16th Sep 2009, 07:03
  #243 (permalink)  
LeadSled
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Australia
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Clinton,
Some joker one said: 'Statistics are like a bikini, what they reveal is interesting, what they conceal is vital".

MACs, around GAAPs or anywhere, are a very (thankfully) rare occurrence. As to whether the hours for all Australian aviation are enough to be able to draw conclusions that are statistically valid --- the "probable answer" is --- yes, no or maybe ---- depending on your point of view.

Are we using statistics in spite of, not because of, their validity. Rightly or wrongly, we do us them. All to often for seriously wrong purposes. The plight of flying schools in GAAPs, their continued viability, is very seriously in doubt, because seriously flawed conclusion from sparse data has, in my opinion, been misapplied ---- I would just love to know who really advised John McCormick.

Re. the "jet fatality rate", "jet" airline aircraft are a small total of the fleet, have a look at fleet hours, the one undeniable is that the majority of passengers exposed to any aeronautical risk travel on HCRPT jet aircraft, regardless of hours flown, sectors, takeoff and landings and so on, any of the "exposure rates" puzzled over.

The one "constant" that always surprised me is the categories of all the accidents, or more correctly, the similarities in accidents, regardless of the "culture" of the state/regulator. Thinx?? Maybe we should do a study of the quality versus the quantity of enforcement, and whether improved air safety outcomes are the aim, versus ---- scalps on belts, or "enforcement revenue" meeting and exceeding budget targets.

Even though I think FAA/FSF/AOPA/EAA/NBAA/ATA etc. have done a good job in the area of low speed handling accidents, for FAAland it is the rate that has been lowered, not the proportion of accidents attributed to handling errors, versus CFIT or VFR into IMC, compared to here or the western European states.

Thus, handling standards/errors are still well up the FAA priority list, despite the lowered rates over the last 15-20 years.

Until something better comes along, we are stuck with what we have, the one thing I am certain about, is that the overall and category record of the US, their air safety outcomes, are head and shoulders above the rest of us.

Comparatively speaking, Australia ain't too bad, but not nearly as good as we think we are, or as good as we should be. You would be a game person to ignore what US has achieved, but for various not very meritorious reasons, we ignore or discount
the US record time and again. Such is nationalism.

Tootle pip!!
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