Root & Branch?
Some very interesting points raised over the last three pages, along with the more mournful, impending feelings of doom.
This is essentially a sop during the party conference season.
Given this governments propensity for governing by headline chasing within a 24-hour news cycle rather than looking forward medium or long term, I think we can reasonably expect any such greenpaper to be extremely long on dumbed down soundbites and very very short on actual substance, very short on what exactly NL may have in mind for the future. Someone else has already alluded to this that to be able to revise properly not just your defence spending, but also your entire strategy in such a short space of time is barking.
Again, as has already been said, you've got to know what you expect the mission to be for your forces, what the threat level is going to be and from where, what you're likely to be involved in before you can start reasonably equipping and recruiting, etc. Unless you're just going to chuck piles of money at it and end up with a broad spectrum capability. That option, plainly is not on offer.
So, what do we expect of our forces? Does anyone really know? Less inter-nation conflict and more against disparate bands of extremists? Or is it foreseen that the likes of Iran, North Korea, even Pakistan or Venezuela, or Libya, or whoever may emerge as threats to world peace and stability? What is the percieved wisdom?
What should be the driver, if anything, for this future strategy, if we dont know ourselves? The overall NATO mission, if we are going to stay in it?
Do we still think we're a world power, purely by virtue of being a permanent member of the UNSC (again, only because we were one of the 5 original nuclear powers)? I cant help but think that those who consistently think and expect us to punch way above our weight are as guilty of living in the past as those who are in danger of sleepwalking us into being salami sliced into non-existance. Is it about time that we stopped playing PCSO to the US's World Policeman and let the rest of the world get on with it? Arguably so, I may think (IMVHO, naturally...)
The very least we ought to be concerned about is defence of the realm, the homeland. Given that we only have at any one time, six ships to protect the UK coastline, I think we might be a bit pushed. I'm not even going to go into AD.... those who know will know what has happened on that front over the last ten years and how it is being led at the moment and the direction it is going in. It is, beyond doubt, an embarrassment and lest I be accused of looking backwards, has achieved more than what a certain undertall Austrian with questionable facial hair managed to achieve seventy odd years ago.
At least, once you know what the mission is, then you can tailor your procurement and your force sizes accordingly. This is something we have not got at the moment.
As soon as I saw the words "root and branch", I was worried. Main reason being yes, this is what is needed, but the root and branch bit that needs reform is primarily in Main Building and Whitehall. I cannot see this supposed review/reform getting anywhere near the same postcode, let alone having any effect on what happens in MB/HMG. The effects of FLF and SDR 98 were felt (from my own RAF experience) more at Group and Command level, with most things being pulled into Wycombe as CINCUKAIR sought to protect and consolidate his empire. I cannot see that it would have been any different for the other two services. So, the part that needed reform more than any other, ie * level and above, never even got a sniff of it.
The mere fact that Jock Stirrup has got the brazen chutzpah to say that the 1998 SDR has served us well, given the situation we find ourselves in just compounds the fact that the man has been singularly unsuited to command at the highest level since the year dot. Unfortunately, with the exceptions of Dannatt and Richards, this is the regrettable calibre of leadership our services are left with, each one trading in their backbones for the extra thick stripe on the arm and the associated pensions.
If a significant part of the percieved problem is money, then as the old adage goes, you have to follow it to see where it is going. Despite paying lip service to Joint Operations, it still remains exactly that. Lip service. We still have far too much single-service stovepiping in terms of procurement and policy. The single service chiefs are still far too obsessed with their own toys regardless of how they should fit into the overall defence strategy. At the current juncture, I'm not sure I'd consider us properly equipped for anything at all, let alone Herrick.
Unfortunately when your leaders sell out the futures of their services to the Treasury, this is what you end up with. Some of the accounting practises in MOD have been breathtaking, but it is starting to catch up with them, they are running out of mirrors and the supply of smoke is not what it was. Shifting things off the balance sheet and outsourcing virtually everything in sight and putting the rest on PFI is maybe financially acceptable, but it diminishes the capability of the services to deliver against the objectives. Yes, there had to be some peace dividend after the end of the Cold War. But, civilianisation has gone far too far, particularly in the supply, distribution and engineering chains - and even considering PFI for AAR, a strategic force multiplier is, to my mind, utter madness. These financial sleights-of-hand are all well and good for short term political gain, but I dont seriously believe that this is the way to defend the nation. Outsourcing has gone far too far, at the expense of expertise that the services had in abundance not ten years ago and particularly from an IT perspective, this has been wasted in favour of outsourcing everything to EDS/Atlas.
Well, I started off thinking that I could come up with something constructive, but I'm afraid my deep rooted cynicism has taken over. I'm afraid that so long as the service chiefs continue to put their own advancement ahead of the requirements of their services and the mission objectives as a whole, then it is only likely to get worse. They stood back and watched what were world class forces wither on the vine 10-15 years ago and they will do the same again. They will continue to waste money hand over fist because they dont know any better and dont want to know. They will continue to outsource and consult for everything because they still do not understand the expertise that they have sacrificed to save their own necks. Root and branch reform of MOD will not get within the M25, let alone within the Underground Zone 1. As long as procurement is politically led, rather than buying off the shelf, you're always going to pay way over the odds and wait an awful lot longer for something that either doesnt do what you need it to do now, let alone when you ordered it, let alone when it is going to be delivered. And lessons are never learned, they are only identified.
Its down to a heinous failure of leadership at single, joint service and ministerial level and a deep seated antipathy to the armed forces from our current PM, surrounded by both other ministers and MP's far too spineless and self serving to do anything about it.
Personally, I can understand those who appear to be thinking that its time to get out before it gets any worse. Because it will, for sure and our current political and military leaders and their pet causes are not worth dying for.
In short, a completely hollow gesture.