"Root & Branch review of defence spending announced"

[Modern Elmo]

...

Summary

The projected service life of the US Ohio-class Trident submarines, built in Groton, Connecticut, is about 44 years. The 14 US submarines currently in service, which were built in the 1980s and 1990s, are due to be retired between 2029 and 2042, when the Trident D5 missiles they launch are also due to be taken out of service.

But, according to the Government’s White Paper [1], the original design life of the UK Vanguard-class Trident submarines, built in Barrow-in-Furness, was only 25 years, but it may be possible to extend this to 30 years of service life. As a result, the 4 UK submarines currently in service, which were built in the 1990s, are due to be retired between 2022 and 2028, that is, before any of the US submarines.

The British submarines spend a much smaller proportion of their life at sea. So, other things being equal, one would expect them to have a longer service life than their American equivalents. However, if the White Paper is to be believed, the most one can expect from them is a service life that is around 50% less.

This proposition that the UK Trident submarines can be operated for a maximum of 30 years is the fundamental assumption in the White Paper. From it, the Government concludes that replacement submarines must be built to enter service from 2024 onwards.

A second major assumption in the White Paper is that it will take 17 years to design and build a second generation of Trident submarines (to do the same job as the first generation). Hence, the Government concludes that a decision must be made in 2007 to build a second generation and to start design work.

... Had the UK bought Ohio-class submarines from the US, instead of building Vanguard-class submarines in the 1990s, then the oldest submarines would have been serviceable to around 2038 – and a UK decision about replacement would not be necessary until well into the 2020s, instead of in 2007.

Of course, buying American submarines was (and is) politically impossible, since, if both missiles and submarines were made in the USA, it would be next to impossible to maintain the fiction that Britain has an “independent” nuclear deterrent.

...

If the service life of the existing UK Trident submarines could be extended further, as Garwin et al suggest may be possible, so that the oldest is retired in 2029 (like the oldest US submarine) rather than 2022 (as projected in the White Paper) the possibility would open up of the UK emulating the US and phasing in the use of the new US missiles and new UK submarine launch platforms from 2029 onwards.

But that’s impossible – the White Paper says the maximum life of the UK submarines is 30 years. Because of the lower standard, and much shorter life, of the British-built Trident submarines, Britain must build a second generation of Trident submarines to enter service from 2024 onwards, submarines that may have to be modified later to launch the new US missiles, since, after 2042, there may be no serviceable Trident D5 missiles for them to use.

...


Annex A US Trident replacement system

The following is an extract from the Nuclear Posture Review, submitted to the US Congress by the Defense Department on 31 December 2001 [8], about a Trident replacement system, that is, missiles (SLBMs: submarine-launched ballistic missiles) and submarines (SSBNs: Sub-Surface Ballistic Nuclear-powered).

(Note that SSN stands for Sub-Surface Nuclear, that is, a nuclear-powered conventionally-armed submarine.)

"Follow-on [replacement] SSBN: ... DoD [Department of Defense] assumes the continued requirement for a sea-based strategic nuclear force. Therefore, the timeframe when the next generation SSBN will need to be deployed is about 2029 when the first of the remaining operational Trident SSBNs is planned to be retired. The Navy is currently studying two options for future follow-on SSBNs: (1) a variant of Virginia-class nuclear attack submarines (SSN); and (2) a dedicated SSBN (either a new design or a derivative of the Trident SSBN) ... If the decision is made to develop a new dedicated SSBN, a program would have to be initiated around 2016 to ensure that a new platform is available in 2029." (p. 42)



David Morrison
23 February 2007
Labour & Trade Union Review
David Morrison's Homepage

Decision to replace Trident submarines is premature, say US experts