I believe I said earlier “I believe for Moorabbin, Jandakot and Bankstown, historic mid-air collision rates were used, not calculated rates based on the FAA formula.” Yes?
Owen,
I am reminded of the old saw:" You think you know what I meant, but what you didn't know was that I didn't say what I mean".
Without causing you to to get so worked up that you are in danger of popping your foofle valve, could I suggest you look carefully at what Ambidjii have done
(probably more correctly --- what is so fundamentally wrong with the processes CASA has inherited from Airservices) with the data. Please have a closer look at how and when/where Ambidjii have selected data, then midcalculated. Perhaps you could explain why they have excluded the long period of time (often with higher movement rates than the last nine years) when there were ZERO MAC.
A few of us with direct experience of the matter (including a number of CFIs/ATOs/CPs at YSBK) have very supportable opinions on why we have had the recent MACs, and it IS NOT GAAP procedures at the heart of the problem.
As I have said, and many agree, the results fail the common sense test.
I know Dick's source of analysis here, a very well know and highly respected, (and published) practitioner in the risk management field, with wide industry experience, including (especially) aviation. I would go so far as to say he could lay claim to being "the father" of modern industrial risk management in Australia (a different field to reliability analysis --- where some of our self proclaimed academic aviation "risk" experts hail from), who has had significant input into the ARM model, and AS/NZ 4360:1999 and 2004. He has done some masterful analysis on the use and abuse of the ARM model, all published. He is professionally, in all respects, on a par with Professor O'Neil at ANU.
Tootle pip!!