I am so happy you find me entertaining
I have not backed away from anything - when did I say I expected a 90% drop in Australian real estate? I did say I expected a 40% fall peak to trough.
I used Japan as an example of what can happen when a debt fuelled speculative bubble bursts. The US is another example where the bottom has not been reached and likely won't be for some time. I was listening tonight to a speaker in the US (one of those ahead of the curve types who cause market moves on Wall Street when they speak) who suggested, for a whole slew of good fundamental reasons, that US real estate might bottom out closer to a 50+% drop than the current 30+% drop.
You seem to believe Australia is immune - good luck to you
I agree with you that the interest rates are not going up anytime soon - down is more likely than up in the next while. The RBA has too much bad news on the unemployment/AUD fronts to seriously consider raising interest rates.
Just out of curiosity did you watch that vid linked to by Foie gras a few pages back - particularly Steve Keen in parts 6 and 7?