Sober Lark, you say
"c800 million live in Europe. What is the size of this market for flying? EG Ireland 4-6 million but DUB alone handles c22-24 million pa pax."
The EU has ca 500 million people, and Russia (120 million) will probably never join an open skies treaty and let foreign companies invade their flight markets, while in the East of the EU, Wizzair is building a defensive front against Ryanair. Ireland is not at all typical, as it's island, also doesn't have a fast train to mainland Europe. You don't get such ratios in France or Germany (only in 'effective islands' like Berlin). Also don't forget that there are competitors in Europe who are very much aware of Ryanair, and will fight them, they are not standing by. It's quite a sign that Ryanair's largest base in mainland Europe, Frankfurt-Hahn, had little expansion and quite some route cancellations in the past year, it's stuck at about 3.5 million passengers. People with kids are already fed up and choose to fly from Frankfurt-proper or Cologne. I can't see them expanding much anymore in Germany, blackmailing Hahn was all over the press and a clear warning to the other airports. A ruthless short-term victory which might cost them dearly in the long run. So probably yes, they might have to go transatlantic once their passenger numbers in Europe stagnate. The model doesn't work without growth.