Part Two......
INVESTIGATORS HAVE RULED out weather and air traffic control as causal factors. The weather in the area was clear with winds at 35,000 ft. about 40 kt. and no turbulence or icing.
Government officials did not think it was an on-board bomb or a missile attack from China. "We haven't found any evidence suggesting the possibility of a missile launch," said Lai Huang, deputy director of Taiwan's National Security Bureau. He also ruled out a terrorist attack. Officials said Taiwan was not conducting any live ammunition drills that day. Nonetheless, the one radar track in reverse direction is puzzling--if it is a valid track. Police have brought explosive detection equipment to the crash site, and investigators are reviewing videotapes from the baggage and immigration counters, as well as records of luggage X-rays.
The aircraft, tail No. B18255 and Boeing serial No. 21843, was delivered to China Airlines in July 1979 and had accumulated about 64,800 hr. and 21,398 cycles. "It's not high cycle compared to other 747s--there are others above 30,000 cycles," a Boeing official said. The aircraft was previously registered as B1866 and was re-registered in the late 1990s. An A check was performed on May 3 and a B check on Apr. 4. It finished a major C check on Nov. 25, 2001, and the next C check would be due Nov. 25 this year. It was powered by Pratt & Whitney JT9D-7AW engines.
China Airlines had five 747-200s but the other four flew cargo; B18255 had been the only one carrying passengers for several years. The Transport and Communications Ministry ordered the four remaining aircraft grounded, affecting a dozen cargo flights per week.
The captain of the flight, Ching-Fong Yi, joined China Airlines on Mar. 1, 1991, and had a total of 10,148 flight hours, including air force service. The copilot was Yea Shyong Shieh, who joined China Airlines on Feb. 1, 1990, with 10,173 hr. The flight engineer was Sen Kuo Chao, who joined the company on Mar. 1, 1977, with 19,117 hr.
Flight 611 was to be the final passenger trip for the aircraft under China Airlines ownership. Orient Thai Airlines was negotiating to buy B18255 and had made a good-faith deposit, but the deal had not been completed. The private Thai carrier is based in Cambodia.
The crash is China Airlines' fourth major accident since 1994 and the 18th since 1960. On Mar. 26, 1994, an Airbus A300-600R crashed at the Nagoya Airport, killing all 264 people on board. On Feb. 16, 1998, an A300B4 on a flight from Bali plowed into a row of houses on approach into Chiang Kai-Shek International, killing all 202 passengers and crew. On Aug. 22, 1999, an MD-11 with 315 passengers flipped over on landing at the Hong Kong International Airport. Fortunately, only three passengers succumbed to their injuries.
The accident has affected the carrier's plans. A code-sharing agreement with Delta Air Lines was to be announced on May 31, but this has been delayed "so CAL can focus on more important things," such as dealing with the accident, a Delta official said. However, "the code-sharing will begin; it's just delayed," the official said.
On May 28, Taiwan's premier, Shyi-kun Yu, said the airline would be privatized within two years, but the China Aviation Development Foundation (CADF), which holds 71% of China Airlines stock, said now isn't the time to privatize because of the weak price. The majority of CADF's board members are appointed by the Transport and Communications Ministry, giving the government effective control. CADF Chairman Jaw-Yang Tsay was the transportation minister until he resigned in 1994 following the Nagoya crash.
Some Taiwanese legislators berated the carrier and criticized the appearance that the ministry both oversees airline safety and also in some manner owns the airline. "We will look at that relationship if necessary," Yong said.
A SEPARATE BRANCH of government unique to Taiwan called the Control Yuan is also taking a role. The Control Yuan is similar to an Inspector General's office, but with more power than in most countries. It has formed a task force to examine issues raised by the accident, such as airplane preflight inspection, whether the May 3 A check was adequate, pilot training, company management of personnel and government supervision.
Task force chief Ching-hui Hsieh said the 23-year-old airplane was being sold to Orient Thai for a low $1.45-million price. "Is such an old plane appropriate for use as a passenger jet?" he asked. "The age of the plane and its low sales price seem to imply that it was in bad condition."
Stephen Rehrmann, vice president of the Morten Beyer & Agnew aircraft valuation firm, said a Stage 3 747-200 of that vintage would be worth about $7.5 million if it were halfway to an airframe D check and engine overhaul, and terminating fixes to major service bulletins had been accomplished. But the noisy JT9D-7AW engines are not Stage 3-compliant, and if the aircraft was near major overhaul (which could cost $8 million) and expensive service bulletins had not been accomplished, the value could be near scrap.
The Control Yuan's power to reprimand frightens civil servants, and some fear their reaction may be to protect themselves rather than to cooperate to find the cause of the crash.
William Dennis contributed to this report from Kuala Lumpur.