A lot of good points, but also a lot of rubbish posted in here from people just looking to get a boot in somewhere. Well join the queue...
Forecasting is an inexact science.
I'm with Callsign Metman in the belief that the loss of local forecasting and observing sites has led to a massive change in quality and / or perception of quality. You no longer have access to local knowledge or a local interpretation of the weather. I also personally believe that the loss of countrywide full real manual 24 hour observations / ascents has led to the input to the model being of reduced quality - and that may lead to rubbish in rubbish out. However thats a personal belief.
Are forecasts better than they used to be? Personally, I feel that they've got worse of late and that I could do a better job. However what forecast am I talking about?
Am I talking about a local weather briefing from a forecaster?
Am I looking at the Met Office generated actual and forecast pressure charts?
Am I talking about an aviation forecast?
Am I talking about a TAF?
Am I talking about the BBC TV forecast?
Am I talking about the BBC TV Countryfile forecast?
Am I talking about the BBC Web Site forecast?
Am I talking about the ITV forecast?
Am I talking about the newspaper forecast?
or the forecast off the Met Office website?
or their new "Invent" site?
or is it a forecast from some other organisation that you're attributing to the Met Office?
or a soundbite forecast tacked on to the end of the news?
or in the Telegraph?
or the Sun?
etc
etc
etc
Each one is different, of different quality, has had more (or less) time assigned to its production / presentation, contains different data, for different audiences, and I guarantee in many cases they're being mixed and matched in peoples minds - I know because it happens to me! I get my weather from the BBC Weather website - its generally rubbish, and the text rarely matches the pictures, and the pictures rarely match the animations! I moan about it! Yet I keep using it because its easily accessible. If I were to look at the Met Office pressure charts however, I can decide for myself how to interpret them, and generally I come out with a fairly good idea of what the weather will do - and generally its accurate! Yet both come from the same Met Office source data?
Don't forget, the vast majority of UK forecasts - whether Met Office or from other commercial organisations - are produced from Met Office data! So if you say one forecast is good and another bad, then at the end of the day, they're probably coming from the same source! Its all down to purpose, presentation and interpretation! If you think the websites are rubbish, then learn how to read and interpret the charts directly! Its not difficult, they're freely available and they're far more accurate! Once upon a time, the pressure charts were all that was displayed, and the public understood them (and understood how the weather worked). Now the country has dumbed down, they can't think for themselves and need someone stunningly cute but dim to read from a script and distract them while they look at pretty animated symbols that take up half the map yet somehow represent what the weather will be in their tiny little world!
If a forecaster says its going to be showery, and a specific location doesn't get a shower, but 5 miles down the road they had massive downpours, thunder and gusty winds on and off for 5 hours, was the forecast right? The person in the location that had no precipitation says it was dry so it was wrong, the person in the location who had the showers say that it rained all day and blew a gale, and there was even thunder, so they think it was wrong. Yet the forecast was absolutely spot on!
A fair proportion of the complaints talked about here are down to ignorance of how the weather works on the part of the end user, and an over-simplication of the forecast product being used / presented on the part of the forecasting organisation.
but you all know this, and you're professionals.... Put it in an aviation context. TAF says its going to be showery and gusty, possible CB, possible TS. You prepare for the weather, but it doesn't come to pass - it shoots off 10 miles in the other direction. Was the forecast wrong? Imagine you hadn't prepared, you didn't have diversion fuel, etc etc. and the storm hit? Thats the nature of the beast...
One thing I do wish they'd do is admit when they're wrong, and not try to gloss over it. Media forecasts these days are so full of waffle and fluff, its as if they are produced by Neu Arbeit spin doctors.
As for the Barbecue summer forecast, well that was an absolute own goal. From what I understand, a significant number of people within the Met Office thought the tag line was a mistake and the forecast didn't justify it, but they were over-ruled to get as much press coverage as possible. The actual contents of the forecast in hindsight weren't too bad apparently - its just everything was overshadowed by the strapline. I think / hope lessons will be learned! I also understand that the "seasonal" model is being significantly upgraded soon, but seasonal forecasting is still in its infancy, and simply shouldn't be used for anything of any importance - which is exactly how the Met Office "sell" it!
Oh, and they don't have a 60 foot waterfall, casino style foyer or sun terrace... They didn't get big bonuses, they don't get paid a fortune (they're well below the normal civil service equivalent pay scales thanks to their trading fund status), and on the whole they're some of the most dedicated people I know.
People really will believe everything they're told in the media...
